Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
This section should be read in conjunction with “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and in our subsequent periodic reports filed with the SEC.
We seek to manage risks that we believe will impact our business including interest rates, liquidity, prepayments, credit quality and market value. When managing these risks we consider the impact on our assets, liabilities and derivative positions. While we do not seek to avoid risk completely, we believe the risk can be quantified from historical experience. We seek to actively manage that risk, to generate risk-adjusted total returns that we believe compensate us appropriately for those risks and to maintain capital levels consistent with the risks we take.
The following analysis includes forward-looking statements that assume that certain market conditions occur. Actual results may differ materially from these projections due to changes in our portfolio assets and borrowings mix and due to developments in the domestic and global financial, mortgage and real estate markets. Developments in the financial markets include the likelihood of changing interest rates and the relationship of various interest rates and their impact on our portfolio yield, cost of funds and cash flows. The analytical methods that we use to assess and mitigate these market risks should not be considered projections of future events or operating performance.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates are sensitive to many factors, including governmental, monetary or tax policies, domestic and international economic conditions, including inflation and deflation and political or regulatory matters beyond our control. Changes in interest rates affect, among other things, the value of the assets we manage and hold in our investment portfolio and the variable-rate borrowings and floating-rate preferred stock we use or issue to fund our operations and portfolio. Changes in interest rates also affect the interest rate swaps and caps, TBAs and other securities or instruments we may use to hedge our portfolio. As a result, our net interest income and adjusted net interest income are particularly affected by changes in interest rates.
For example, we hold residential loans and RMBS, some of which may have fixed rates or interest rates that adjust on various dates that are not synchronized to the adjustment dates on our repurchase agreements. In general, the re-pricing of our repurchase agreements occurs more quickly than the re-pricing of our variable-interest rate assets. Thus, it is likely that our floating rate financing, such as our repurchase agreements, may react to interest rates before our residential loans or RMBS because the weighted average next re-pricing dates on the related financing may have shorter time periods than that of the residential loans or RMBS. Moreover, changes in interest rates can directly impact prepayment speeds, thereby affecting our net return on residential loans and RMBS. During a declining interest rate environment, the prepayment of residential loans and RMBS may accelerate (as borrowers may opt to refinance at a lower interest rate) causing the amount of liabilities that have been extended by the use of repurchase agreements to increase relative to the amount of residential loans and RMBS, possibly resulting in a decline in our net return on residential loans and RMBS, as replacement residential loans and RMBS may have a lower yield than those being prepaid. Conversely, during an increasing interest rate environment, residential loans and RMBS may prepay more slowly than expected, requiring us to finance a higher amount of residential loans and RMBS than originally forecast and at a time when interest rates may be higher, resulting in a decline in our net return on residential loans and RMBS. Accordingly, each of these scenarios can negatively impact our net interest income and adjusted net interest income. In addition, when we purchase residential loans at a discount to par value, and borrowers then prepay at a slower rate than we expected, the decreased prepayments would result in a lower yield than expected on the asset and/or may result in a decline in the fair value of the residential loans.
We seek to manage interest rate risk in our portfolio by utilizing interest rate caps, interest rate swaps, swaptions, futures, options on futures and U.S. Treasury securities with the goal of optimizing earnings potential while seeking to maintain long term stable portfolio values. Certain of our consolidated multi-family properties with variable-rate mortgages payable have entered into interest rate cap contracts as required by the respective mortgage loan agreements. The Company also has an interest rate cap contract related to a repurchase agreement for residential loans, as required by the counterparty.
We utilize a model-based risk analysis system to assist in projecting interest rate-sensitive asset and liability portfolio performances over a scenario of different interest rates. Computation of the cash flows for interest rate-sensitive assets that may affect annualized adjusted net interest income are based on assumptions related to, among other things, prepayment speeds, slope of the yield curve, and composition and size of our portfolio. Assumptions for interest rate-sensitive liabilities relate to, among other things, anticipated interest rates, collateral requirements as a percentage of repurchase agreement financings and amounts and terms of borrowings. As these assumptions may not be realized, adjusted net interest income results may therefore be significantly different from the annualized adjusted net interest income produced in our analyses. We also note that the uncertainty associated with the estimate of a change in adjusted net interest income is directly related to the size of interest rate move considered.
Based on the results of the model, the instantaneous changes in interest rates specified below would have had the following effect on annualized adjusted net interest income based on our assets and liabilities as of September 30, 2024 (dollar amounts in thousands):
| | | | | | | | |
| Changes in Interest Rates (basis points) | | Changes in Adjusted Net Interest Income (1) (2) |
| +200 | | $ | (72,912) | |
| +100 | | $ | (36,461) | |
| -100 | | $ | 36,373 | |
| -200 | | $ | 72,808 | |
(1)Represents a non-GAAP financial measure. See Item 2, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Non-GAAP Financial Measures" in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for a reconciliation of the Company's non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measure.
(2)Certain assumptions have been made in connection with the calculation of the information set forth in the table and, as such, there can be no assurance that assumed events will occur or that other events will not occur that would affect the outcomes. The base interest rate scenario assumes interest rates as of September 30, 2024. This analysis utilizes assumptions and estimates based on management's judgment and experience. Future purchases and sales of assets could materially change our interest rate risk profile.
While this table reflects the estimated impact of interest rate changes on the static portfolio, we actively manage our portfolio and continuously make adjustments to the size and composition of our asset and derivative hedge portfolios and interest-bearing liabilities. Actual results could differ significantly from those estimated in the table.
Interest rate changes may also impact our GAAP book value and adjusted book value as many of our assets and related hedge derivatives, if any, are marked-to-market each quarter. Generally, as interest rates increase, the value of our mortgage-related assets decreases, and conversely, as interest rates decrease, the value of such investments will increase. In general, we expect that, over time, decreases in the value of our portfolio attributable to interest rate changes may be offset, to the degree we are hedged, by increases in the value of our interest rate swaps or other financial instruments used for hedging purposes, and vice versa. However, the relationship between spreads on our assets and spreads on our hedging instruments may vary from time to time, resulting in a net aggregate GAAP book value and adjusted book value increase or decline. In addition, changes in interest rates could also have an impact on net operating income generated by our consolidated multi-family properties which consequently could have an impact on valuation of underlying real estate.
Our net interest income, adjusted net interest income and the fair value of our assets and our financing activities could be negatively affected by volatility in interest rates, as has been the case throughout much of 2022, 2023 and continuing in 2024. A prolonged period of extremely volatile and unstable market conditions would likely increase our funding costs and negatively affect market risk mitigation strategies. Higher income volatility from changes in interest rates could cause a loss of future net interest income and adjusted net interest income and a decrease in current fair market values of our assets. Fluctuations in interest rates will impact both the level of income and expense recorded on most of our assets and liabilities and the market value of all or substantially all of our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our net income, operating results, or financial condition.
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity is a measure of our ability to meet potential cash requirements, including ongoing commitments to repay borrowings, fund and maintain investments, pay dividends to our stockholders and other general business needs. The primary liquidity risk we face arises from financing long-maturity assets with shorter-term financings. We recognize the need to have funds available to operate our business. We manage and forecast our liquidity needs and sources daily to ensure that we have adequate liquidity at all times. We plan to meet liquidity through normal operations with the goal of avoiding unplanned sales of assets or emergency borrowing of funds.
We are subject to “margin call” risk on a significant portion of our repurchase agreements and certain derivative instruments. In the event the value of our assets pledged as collateral or the value of our derivative instruments suddenly decrease, margin calls could increase, causing an adverse change in our liquidity position. Additionally, if one or more of our repurchase agreement counterparties chooses not to provide ongoing funding, we may be unable to replace the financing through other lenders on favorable terms or at all.
We also utilize longer-termed and/or more committed financing arrangements for certain of our credit investments, such as securitizations, term financings and corporate debt securities that provide less or no exposure to fluctuations in the collateral repricing determinations of financing counterparties or rapid liquidity reductions in repurchase agreement financing markets. These financings may involve greater expense relative to repurchase agreement funding. We provide no assurance that we will be able in the future to access sources of capital that are attractive to us, that we will be able to roll over or replace our repurchase agreements or other financing instruments as they mature from time to time in the future or that we otherwise will not need to resort to unplanned sales of assets to provide liquidity in the future. See Item 2, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Liquidity and Capital Resources" and the other information in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for further information about our liquidity and capital resource management.
Prepayment Risk
When borrowers repay the principal on their residential loans before maturity or faster than their scheduled amortization, the effect is to shorten the period over which interest is earned, and therefore, reduce the yield for residential mortgage assets purchased at a premium to their then current balance. Conversely, residential mortgage assets purchased for less than their then current balance, such as many of our residential loans, may exhibit higher yields due to faster prepayments. Furthermore, actual prepayment speeds may differ from our modeled prepayment speed projections impacting the effectiveness of any hedges we may have in place to mitigate financing and/or fair value risk. Generally, when market interest rates decline, borrowers have a tendency to refinance their mortgages, thereby increasing prepayments. Therefore, increased prepayments on our investments may accelerate the redeployment of our capital to generally lower yielding investments. Similarly, decreased prepayments are generally associated with increasing market interest rates and may slow our ability to redeploy capital to generally higher-yielding investments.
Our modeled prepayments will help determine the amount of hedging we use to offset changes in interest rates. If actual prepayment rates are higher than modeled, the yield will be less than modeled in cases where we paid a premium for the particular residential mortgage asset. Conversely, when we have paid a premium, if actual prepayment rates experienced are slower than modeled, we would amortize the premium over a longer time period, resulting in a higher yield to maturity.
In an environment of increasing prepayment speeds, the timing difference between the actual cash receipt of principal paydowns and the announcement of the principal paydowns may result in additional margin requirements from our repurchase agreement counterparties.
We mitigate prepayment risk by constantly evaluating our residential mortgage assets relative to prepayment speeds observed for assets with similar structures, quantities and characteristics. Furthermore, we stress-test the portfolio as to prepayment speeds and interest rate risk in order to further develop or make modifications to our hedge balances. Historically, we have not hedged 100% of our liability costs due to prepayment risk.
Credit Risk
Credit risk is the risk that we will not fully collect the principal we have invested in our credit sensitive assets, including residential loans, non-Agency RMBS, preferred equity and mezzanine loan and joint venture equity investments, due to borrower defaults or defaults by our operating partners in their payment obligations to us. In selecting the credit sensitive assets in our portfolio, we seek to identify and invest in assets with characteristics that we believe offset or limit our exposure to defaults.
We seek to manage credit risk through our pre-acquisition or pre-funding due diligence process, and by factoring projected credit losses into the purchase price we pay or loan terms we negotiate for all of our credit sensitive assets. In general, we evaluate relative valuation, supply and demand trends, prepayment rates, delinquency and default rates, vintage of collateral and macroeconomic factors as part of this process. Nevertheless, these procedures provide no assurance that we will not experience unanticipated credit losses which would materially affect our operating results. We also manage credit risk with credit default swaps on corporate bond indices (CDX) for which the Company buys credit protection and pays periodic payments at fixed rates to credit protection sellers, in return for compensation for default (or similar credit event) by a reference index.
Recent inflationary pressures have caused, and a possible economic recession or stagnation in the U.S. in the near future may cause, an increase in the credit risk of our credit sensitive assets. We would expect delinquencies, defaults and requests for forbearance arrangements to rise should savings, incomes and revenues of renters, borrowers, operating partners and other businesses become increasingly constrained from a slow-down in economic activity. Any future period of payment deferrals, forbearance, delinquencies, defaults, foreclosures or losses will likely adversely affect our net interest income and adjusted net interest income from multi-family loans, residential loans, and our RMBS investments and rental income and reduce the distributions we receive from our joint venture equity investments in multi-family apartment communities, the fair value of these assets, our ability to liquidate the collateral that may underlie these investments or obtain additional financing and the future profitability of our investments. Further, in the event of delinquencies, defaults and foreclosure, regulatory changes and policies designed to protect borrowers and renters may slow or prevent us from taking remediation actions or optimizing a resolution for or exit from the asset.
We purchase certain residential loans at a discount to par, reflecting a perceived higher risk of default. In connection with our loan acquisitions, we or a third-party due diligence firm perform an independent review of the mortgage file to assess the state of mortgage loan files, the servicing of the mortgage loan, compliance with existing guidelines, as well as our ability to enforce the contractual rights in the mortgage. We also obtain certain representations and warranties from each seller with respect to the mortgage loans, as well as the enforceability of the lien on the mortgaged property. A seller who breaches these representations and warranties may be obligated to repurchase the loan from us. In addition, as part of our process, we focus on selecting a servicer with the appropriate expertise to mitigate losses and maximize our overall return on these residential loans. This involves, among other things, performing due diligence on the servicer prior to their engagement, assigning the appropriate servicer for each loan based on certain characteristics and monitoring each servicer's performance on an ongoing basis.
Investments in non-Agency RMBS, CMBS and ABS also contain credit risk. These investments typically consist of either the senior, mezzanine or subordinate tranches in securitizations. The underlying collateral of these securitizations may be exposed to various macroeconomic and asset-specific credit risks. These securities have varying levels of credit enhancement which provide some structural protection from losses within the securitization. We undertake an in-depth assessment of the underlying collateral and securitization structure when investing in these assets, which may include modeling defaults, prepayments and losses across different scenarios. In addition, we are exposed to credit risk in our Mezzanine Lending and equity investments in owners of multi-family properties, including joint venture equity investments in multi-family apartment communities. The performance and value of these investments depend upon the applicable operating partner’s or borrower’s ability to effectively operate the multi-family properties that serve as the underlying collateral to produce cash flows adequate to pay distributions, interest or principal due to us. The Company monitors the performance and credit quality of the underlying assets in which it invests or that serve as collateral for its investments. In connection with these types of investments by us in multi-family properties, the procedures for ongoing monitoring include financial statement analysis and regularly scheduled site inspections of portfolio properties to assess property physical condition, performance of on-site staff and competitive activity in the sub-market. We also formulate annual budgets and performance goals alongside our operating partners for use in measuring the ongoing investment performance and credit quality of our investments. Additionally, the Company's preferred equity and equity investments typically provide us with various rights and remedies to protect our investment.
Fair Value Risk
Changes in interest rates, market liquidity, credit quality and other factors also expose us to market value (fair value) fluctuation on our assets, liabilities and hedges. For certain of our credit sensitive assets, fair values may only be derived or estimated for these investments using various valuation techniques, such as computing the present value of estimated future cash flows using discount rates commensurate with the risks involved. However, the determination of estimated future cash flows is inherently subjective and imprecise and extremely volatile periods or disruptions in the market, such as during the severe market disruption that occurred in 2020 or the current volatile market environment, make such estimates and assumptions inherently less certain. As a result, we believe our market value (fair value) risk has significantly increased. Minor changes in assumptions or estimation methodologies can have a material effect on these derived or estimated fair values.
Our fair value estimates and assumptions are indicative of the interest rate and business environments as of September 30, 2024 and do not take into consideration the effects of subsequent changes. The following describes the methods and assumptions we use in estimating fair values of our financial instruments:
Fair value estimates are made as of a specific point in time based on estimates using present value or other valuation techniques. These techniques involve uncertainties and are significantly affected by the assumptions used and the judgments made regarding risk characteristics of various financial instruments, discount rates, estimate of future cash flows, future expected loss experience and other factors.
Changes in assumptions could significantly affect these estimates and the resulting fair values. Derived fair value estimates cannot be substantiated by comparison to independent markets and, in many cases, could not be realized in an immediate sale of the instrument. Also, because of differences in methodologies and assumptions used to estimate fair values, the fair values used by us should not be compared to those of other companies.
The table below presents the sensitivity of the fair value of our portfolio as of September 30, 2024, using a discounted cash flow simulation model assuming an instantaneous interest rate shift. Application of this method results in an estimation of the fair market value change of our assets, liabilities and hedging instruments per 100 basis point shift in interest rates.
This analysis also takes into consideration the value of options embedded in certain of our assets including constraints on the re-pricing of the interest rate of assets resulting from periodic and lifetime cap features, as well as prepayment options. Assets and liabilities that are not interest rate-sensitive such as cash, payment receivables, prepaid expenses, payables and accrued expenses are excluded.
Changes in assumptions including, but not limited to, volatility, mortgage and financing spreads, prepayment behavior, credit conditions, defaults, as well as the timing and level of interest rate changes will affect the results of the model. Therefore, actual results are likely to vary from modeled results.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Fair Value Changes |
| Changes in Interest Rates | | Changes in Fair Value (1) | | Percentage Change in Portfolio Fair Value (1) |
| (basis points) | | (dollar amounts in thousands) | | |
| +200 | | $(164,894) | | (3.00)% |
| +100 | | $(110,661) | | (2.02)% |
| Base | | | | — |
| -100 | | $45,100 | | 0.82% |
| -200 | | $101,784 | | 1.85% |
(1)Includes residential loans, Mezzanine Lending investments, investment securities, derivatives and residential loan securitizations, non-Agency RMBS re-securitization and senior unsecured notes at fair value.
Although the use of a model to perform market value sensitivity analysis is widely accepted as a tool in identifying potential risk in a changing interest rate environment, it should be noted that the model does not take into consideration changes that may occur such as, but not limited to, changes in portfolio composition, financing strategies, market spreads, business volumes or overall market liquidity. Accordingly, we make extensive use of an earnings simulation model to further analyze our level of interest rate risk.
Capital Market Risk
We are exposed to risks related to the equity capital markets, and our related ability to raise capital through the issuance of our common stock, preferred stock or other equity instruments. We are also exposed to risks related to the debt capital markets, and our related ability to finance our business through credit facilities or other debt instruments. As a REIT, we are required to distribute a significant portion of our taxable income annually, which constrains our ability to accumulate operating cash flow and therefore may require us to utilize debt or equity capital to finance our business. We seek to mitigate these risks by monitoring the debt and equity capital markets to inform our decisions on the amount, timing, and terms of capital we raise. Based on the currently uncertain market environment, we expect the capital markets to remain volatile and uncertain at varying levels for the near future and this may adversely affect our ability to access capital to fund our operations, meet our obligations and make distributions to our stockholders.
