ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
The business and financial results of TXNM, PNM, and TNMP are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond their control, including those set forth below and in MD&A, Note 16, and Note 17. For other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in any forward-looking statement contained in this report, see Disclosure Regarding Forward Looking Statements in Item 1. Business. TNMP provides transmission and distribution services to REPs that provide electric service to consumers in TNMP’s service territories. References to customers in the risk factors discussed below also encompass the customers of these REPs who are the ultimate consumers of electricity transmitted and distributed through TNMP’s facilities.
Regulatory Risks
The profitability of TXNM’s utilities depends on being able to recover their costs through regulated rates and earn a fair return on invested capital, including investments in its generating plants. Without timely cost recovery, including recovery of undepreciated investments and the opportunity to earn a fair return on capital investments, TXNM’s liquidity and results of operations could be negatively impacted. Further, PNM and TNMP are in a period of significant capital expenditures. While increased capital investments, higher interest rates, and other costs are placing upward pressure on rates charged to customers, energy efficiency initiatives and other factors are placing downward pressure on customer usage. The combination of these matters could adversely affect the Company’s results of operations and cash flows.
The rates PNM charges its customers are regulated by the NMPRC and FERC. TNMP is regulated by the PUCT. The Company is in a period requiring significant capital investment and is projecting total construction expenditures for the years 2025-2029 to be $7.8 billion. PNM and TNMP anticipate a trend toward increasing costs, for which they will have to seek regulatory recovery. These costs include, or are related to, costs of asset construction for generation, transmission, and distribution systems necessary to provide electric service, as well as the cost to remove and retire existing assets, environmental compliance expenditures, regulatory mandates to acquire power from renewable resources, regulation related to nuclear safety, increased costs related to cybersecurity, increased interest costs to finance capital investments, and depreciation. If the regulators do not authorize appropriate recovery of any of the costs discussed above, including undepreciated generating resources at the time those resources are removed from service and fails to authorize recovery of the costs of obtaining power to replace those resources, PNM and TNMP’s financial position, results of operations, and cash flows could be negatively impacted.
At the same time costs are increasing, there are factors placing downward pressure on the demand for power, thereby reducing customer usage. These factors include changing customer behaviors, increased emphasis on energy efficiency measures, utilization of alternative sources of power, rate design that is not driven by economics, unfavorable economic conditions, reduced new sources of demand, and unpredictable weather patterns. The combination of costs increasing relatively rapidly and the technologies and behaviors that are reducing energy consumption places upward pressure on the per unit prices that must be charged to recover costs. This upward pressure on unit prices could result in additional efforts by customers to reduce consumption through alternative measures. Without timely cost recovery and the authorization to earn a reasonable return on invested capital, the Company’s liquidity and results of operations could be negatively impacted.
In June 2024, PNM filed the 2025 Rate Request for a two-phase implementation of a $3.0 billion increase in total rate base. The increase includes investments in transmission, distribution, and generation facilities to ensure safe, reliable delivery of electricity and a request for an ROE of 10.45%. An adverse outcome in the 2025 Rate Request could negatively impact PNM’s financial position, results of operation, and cash flows. See Note 17.
It is also possible that unsatisfactory outcomes of these matters, the financial impact of climate change regulation or legislation, other environmental regulations, the result of litigation, the adequacy and timeliness of cost recovery mechanisms, and other business considerations, could jeopardize the economic viability of certain generating facilities or the ability or willingness of individual participants to continue their participation through the periods currently contemplated in the agreements governing those facilities.
TXNM’s utilities are subject to numerous comprehensive federal, state, tribal, and local environmental laws and regulations, including those related to climate change as well as increased stakeholder actions related to sustainability matters and reducing GHG, which may impose significant compliance costs and may significantly limit or affect their operations and financial results.
Compliance with federal, state, tribal, and local environmental laws and regulations, including those addressing climate change, air quality, CCRs, discharges of wastewater originating from fly ash and bottom ash handling facilities, cooling water, sustainability, GHG emissions, and other matters, may result in increased capital, operating, and other costs, particularly with regard to enforcement efforts focused on power plant emission control obligations. These costs could include remediation, containment, civil liability, and monitoring expenses. The Company cannot predict how it would be affected if existing environmental laws and regulations were to be repealed, revised, or reinterpreted, or if new environmental laws or regulations were to be adopted. See Note 16 and the Climate Change Issues subsection of the Other Issues Facing the Company section of MD&A.
The utility industry is facing increasing stakeholder scrutiny related to sustainability. Recently, TXNM has seen a rise in certain stakeholders, such as investors, customers, employees, and lenders, placing increasing importance on the impact and social cost associated with climate change. Federal GHG reduction measures setting standards and emission guidelines, and climate-related disclosure rules remain in a state of uncertainty. Therefore, TXNM is dealing with an uncertain regulatory and policy environment and increased scrutiny and changing stakeholder expectations with respect to environmental and climate change programs, judicial decisions, and international accords. Under the Biden Administration, EPA and other federal agencies have sought to expand climate change regulations and work to aggressively reduce GHG emissions. Although it is uncertain how the current Trump Administration will ultimately act with respect to these regulations, many state agencies, environmental advocacy groups, and other organizations will continue to focus on decarbonization with enhanced attention on GHG from fossil-fueled generation facilities. See discussion above and Note 17, regarding PNM’s abandonment applications and the ETA. PNM currently depends on fossil-fueled generation for 28.2% of its electricity. As discussed under Climate Change Issues, this type of generation is subject to existing and future EPA or state regulations requiring GHG reductions. The anticipated expansion of federal and state regulations could result in additional operating restrictions on facilities and increased generation and compliance costs.
CCRs from the operation of SJGS were used in the reclamation of a surface coal mine. These CCRs consist of fly ash, bottom ash, and gypsum. Any new regulation that would affect the reclamation process, including any future decision regarding classification of CCRs as hazardous waste, could significantly increase the costs of the disposal of CCRs and the costs of mine reclamation. In addition, PNM would incur additional costs to the extent the rule requires the closure or modification of CCR units at Four Corners or the construction of new CCR units beyond those already anticipated or requires corrective action to address releases from CCR disposal units at the site. See Note 16.
A regulatory body may identify a site requiring environmental cleanup, including cleanup related to catastrophic events such as hurricanes or wildfires, and designate PNM or TNMP as a responsible party. There is also uncertainty in quantifying exposure under environmental laws that impose joint and several liability on all potentially responsible parties. Failure to comply with environmental laws and regulations, even if such non-compliance is caused by factors beyond PNM’s or TNMP’s control, may result in the assessment of civil or criminal penalties and fines.
In the first round of the CAA regional haze program, BART determinations were made for both SJGS and Four Corners, requiring the facilities to reduce the levels of visibility-impairing emissions, including NOx, through the installation of control technology, resulting in operating cost increases. Deadlines for SIPs for the second planning period were in July 2021 which NMED was unable to meet. NMED is currently preparing its next regional haze SIP and notified PNM that it will not be required to submit a regional haze four-factor analysis for SJGS since PNM retired its share of SJGS in 2022.
In February 2024, EPA proposed to impose a federal implementation plan on New Mexico to address the interstate transport of ozone and its precursors, referred to by EPA as the “good neighbor” rule. If finalized as proposed, compliance with the rule would require specified fossil fuel-fired generating resources to participate in an ozone-season NOx emission allowance trading program that will limit total NOx emissions from all affected units within the state of New Mexico. In December 2024, EPA pulled its proposed rule from the OMB and did not specify if and when the rule might be resubmitted for review.
If PNM fails to timely obtain, maintain, or comply with any required environmental regulatory approval, operations at affected facilities could be suspended or could subject PNM to additional expenses and potential penalties. Failure to comply with applicable environmental laws and regulations also could result in civil liability arising out of government enforcement actions or private claims. Environmental noncompliance could also result in reputational harm, which may cause stock price decreases or cause certain investors and financial institutions not to purchase the Company’s debt securities or otherwise provide the Company with capital or credit on favorable terms, which may cause the cost of capital to increase. In addition, TXNM and its operating subsidiaries may underestimate the costs of environmental compliance, liabilities, and litigation due to the uncertainty inherent in these matters. Although there is uncertainty about the timing and form of the implementation of EPA’s regulations regarding GHG emissions, climate change, CCRs, power plant emissions, changes to the ambient air quality
standards, and other environmental issues, the promulgation and implementation of such regulations could have a material impact on operations. The Company is unable to estimate these costs due to the many uncertainties associated with, among other things, the nature and extent of future regulations and changes in existing regulations, including the changes in regulatory policy under the Trump Administration. Timely regulatory recovery of costs associated with any environmental-related regulations would be needed to maintain a strong financial and operational profile. The above factors could adversely affect the Company’s business, financial position, results of operations, and liquidity.
TXNM, PNM, and TNMP are subject to complex government regulation unrelated to the environment, which may have a negative impact on their businesses, financial position and results of operations.
To operate their businesses, TXNM, PNM, and TNMP are required to have numerous permits and approvals from a variety of regulatory agencies. Regulatory bodies with jurisdiction over the utilities include the NMPRC, NMED, PUCT, TCEQ, ERCOT, FERC, NRC, EPA, and NERC. Oversight by these agencies covers many aspects of the Company’s utility operations including, but not limited to: location, construction, and operation of facilities; the purchase of power under long-term contracts; conditions of service; the issuance of securities; and rates charged to customers. FERC has issued a number of rules pertaining to preventing undue discrimination in transmission services and electric reliability standards. The significant level of regulation imposes restrictions on the operations of the Company and causes the incurrence of substantial compliance costs. TXNM and its subsidiaries are unable to predict the impact on their business and operating results from future actions of any agency regulating the Company. Changes in existing regulations or the adoption of new ones could result in additional expenses and/or changes in business operations. Failure to comply with any applicable rules, regulations or decisions may lead to customer refunds, fines, penalties, and other payments, which could materially and adversely affect the results of operations and financial condition of TXNM and its subsidiaries.
Operational Risks
Customer electricity usage could be reduced by increases in prices charged and other factors. This could result in underutilization of PNM’s generating capacity, as well as underutilization of the capacities of PNM’s and TNMP’s transmission and distribution systems. Should this occur, operating and capital costs might not be fully recovered, and financial performance could be negatively impacted.
A number of factors influence customers’ electricity usage. These factors include but are not limited to rates charged by PNM and TNMP, rates charged by REPs utilizing TNMP’s facilities to deliver power, energy efficiency initiatives, unusual weather patterns, availability and cost of alternative sources of power, and national, regional, or local economic conditions.
These factors and others may prompt customers to institute additional energy efficiency measures or take other actions that would result in lower energy consumption. If customers bypass or underutilize PNM’s and TNMP’s facilities through self-generation, renewable, or other energy resources, technological change, or other measures, revenues would be negatively impacted.
PNM’s and TNMP’s service territories include several military bases and federally funded national laboratories, as well as large industrial customers that have significant direct and indirect impacts on the local economies where they operate. The Company does not directly provide service to any of the military bases or national laboratories but does provide service to large industrial customers. The Company’s business could be hurt from the impacts on the local economies associated with these customer groups as well as directly from the large industrial customers for a number of reasons including federally-mandated base closures, significant curtailment of the activities at the bases or national laboratories, and closure of industrial facilities or significant curtailment of their activities.
Another factor that could negatively impact the Company is that proposals are periodically advanced in various localities to municipalize, or otherwise take over PNM’s facilities, which PNM believes would require state legislative or other legal action to implement, or to establish new municipal utilities in areas currently served by PNM. If any such initiative is successful, the result could be a material reduction in the usage of the facilities, a reduction in rate base, and reduced earnings.
Should any of the above factors result in facilities being underutilized, the Company’s financial position, results of operations, and cash flows could be significantly impacted.
Advances in technology could make electric generating facilities less competitive.
Research and development activities are ongoing for new technologies that produce power or reduce power consumption. These technologies include renewable energy, customer-oriented generation, energy storage, and energy efficiency. PNM generates power at central station power plants to achieve economies of scale and produce power at a cost that is competitive with rates established through the regulatory process. There are distributed generation technologies that produce power, including fuel cells, microturbines, wind turbines, and solar cells, which have become increasingly cost competitive. These advances in technology have reduced the costs of these alternative methods of producing power to a level that is competitive with that of central station power production. In addition, advances made in the capabilities of energy storage have
further decreased power production and peak usage through the dispatch of more battery systems. These technological advances have resulted in demand reduction that negatively impact revenue and/or result in underutilized assets that have been built to serve peak usage. In addition, certain federal, state, or local requirements that regulated utilities such as PNM are required to follow could result in third parties being able to provide electricity from similar generation technologies to consumers at prices lower than PNM is able to offer. As these technologies become more cost competitive or can be used by third parties to supply power at lower prices than PNM is able to offer, PNM’s energy sales and/or regulated returns could be eroded, and the value of its generating facilities could be reduced. Advances in technology could also change the channels through which electric customers purchase or use power, which could reduce the Company’s sales and revenues or increase expenses. These advances can also create more uncertainty in load shapes and forecasts, which could have implications for generation and system planning.
Costs of decommissioning, remediation, and restoration of nuclear and fossil-fueled power plants, as well as reclamation of related coal mines, could exceed the estimates of TXNM and PNM as well as the amounts PNM recovers from its ratepayers, which could negatively impact results of operations and liquidity.
PNM has interests in a nuclear power plant, a coal-fired power plant, and several natural gas-fired power plants and is obligated to pay its share of the costs to decommission these facilities. PNM is also obligated to pay for its share of the costs of reclamation of the mine that supplies coal to the coal-fired power plant. Likewise, other owners or participants are responsible for their shares of the decommissioning and reclamation obligations, and it is important to PNM that those parties fulfill their obligations. Rates charged by PNM to its customers, as approved by the NMPRC, include a provision for recovery of certain costs of decommissioning, remediation, reclamation, and restoration. The NMPRC has established a cap on the amount of costs for the final reclamation of the surface coal mines that may be recovered from customers. PNM records estimated liabilities for its share of the legal obligations for decommissioning and reclamation. These estimates include many assumptions about future events and are inherently imprecise. In the event the costs to decommission the facilities or to reclaim the mines serving the plants exceed current estimates, or if amounts are not approved for recovery by the NMPRC, results of operations could be negatively impacted.
The costs of decommissioning any nuclear power plant are substantial. PNM is responsible for all decommissioning obligations related to its entire interest in PVNGS, including portions both during and after termination of the leases. PNM maintains trust funds designed to provide adequate financial resources for decommissioning PVNGS and SJGS, and for reclamation of the coal mine that served SJGS and continues to serve Four Corners at the end of its expected life. However, if the PVNGS units are decommissioned before their planned date or the coal mine serving Four Corners is shut down sooner than expected, these funds may prove to be insufficient.
The financial performance of TXNM, PNM, and TNMP may be adversely affected if power plants, other generation resources, and transmission and distribution systems do not operate reliably and efficiently.
The Company’s financial performance depends on the successful operation of PNM’s generation assets, as well as the transmission and distribution systems of PNM and TNMP. PNM’s retirement of SJGS will increase PNM’s dependency on other generation resources, including renewable resources, gas-fired facilities, and PVNGS, and will reduce PNM’s flexibility in managing those resources. Unscheduled or longer than expected maintenance outages, breakdown or failure of equipment or processes due to aging infrastructure, inability to install or operate renewable resources, temporary or permanent shutdowns to achieve environmental compliance, other performance problems with the generation assets, severe weather conditions, accidents and other catastrophic events, acts of war or terrorism, cybersecurity attacks, wildfires, disruptions in the supply, quality, and delivery of fuel and water supplies, and other factors could result in PNM’s load requirements being larger than available system generation capacity. Unplanned outages of generating units and extensions of scheduled outages occur from time to time and are an inherent risk of the Company’s business. If these were to occur, PNM would be required to purchase electricity in either the wholesale market or spot market at the then-current market price. There can be no assurance that sufficient electricity would be available at reasonable prices, or available at all. The failure of transmission or distribution facilities may also affect PNM’s and TNMP’s ability to deliver power. These potential generation, distribution, and transmission problems, and any service interruptions related to them, could result in lost revenues and additional costs.
TXNM, PNM, and TNMP are subject to information security breaches and risks of unauthorized access to their information and operational technology systems as well as physical threats to assets.
The Company faces the risk of physical and cybersecurity attacks, both threatened and actual, against generation facilities, transmission and distribution infrastructure, information technology systems, and network infrastructure, which could negatively impact the ability of the Company to generate, transmit, and distribute power, or otherwise operate facilities in the most efficient manner or at all.
The utility industry in which the Company operates is a highly regulated industry that requires the continued operation of sophisticated information technology systems and network infrastructure, some of which are deemed to be critical infrastructure under NERC guidelines. Certain of the Company’s systems are interconnected with external networks. In the regular course of business, the utilities handle a range of sensitive security and customer information. PNM and TNMP are
subject to the rules of various agencies and the laws of various states, related to safeguarding and maintaining the confidentiality of this information. Cyber-attacks regularly occur, and generally are unsuccessful. To date, those few events that were successful did not result in significant or consequential business impacts. However, despite steps the Company may take to detect, mitigate, and/or eliminate threats and respond to security incidents, the techniques used by those who wish to obtain unauthorized access, and possibly disable or sabotage systems and/or abscond with information and data, change frequently and continue to evolve with the use of artificial intelligence and the Company may not be able to protect against all such actions.
With the proliferation of Generative Artificial Intelligence (“GenAI”) tools like opensource ChatGPT and other public Large Language models, bad actors are becoming better equipped to effectively launch social engineering attacks against individuals and organizations. With their broad array of use cases, these tools are enhancing data theft, malware development, social engineering, ransomware, and misinformation. GenAI technology is enabling malicious actors to increase the speed and variation of their attacks by modifying code almost instantaneously, enabling attacks to be created and deployed with thousands of variations of social engineering messages, effectively changing to a more iterative attack methodology to increase their probability of success. In the event that a capable adversary attacks the Company’s computer and operating systems, despite the best efforts of the Company, the generation, transmission, or distribution of electrical services could be degraded or disrupted, customer information, business records, or other sensitive data could be lost, destroyed, or released outside of the Company’s control.
Further, the Company’s use of technologies manufactured by third parties, including applications with GenAI capabilities, may be subject to espionage activities, and cyber-attack of the third party resulting in the loss of confidentiality, privacy, integrity of data, and other losses outside of the control of the Company. Although the Company has implemented security measures to identify, prevent, detect, respond to, and recover from cyber and physical security events and supply chain disruptions, critical infrastructure, including information and operational technology systems, are vulnerable to disability, failures, or unauthorized access, which could occur as a result of malicious compromise, employee error, and/or employee misconduct or supply compromise.
A successful physical or cybersecurity attack or other similar failure of the systems could impact the reliability of PNM’s generation and PNM’s and TNMP’s transmission and distribution systems, including the possible unauthorized shutdown of facilities. Such an event could lead to disruptions of business operations, including the Company’s ability to generate, transport, and deliver power to serve customers, to bill customers, and to process other financial information. A breach of the Company’s information systems could also lead to the loss and destruction of confidential and proprietary data, personally identifiable information, trade secrets, intellectual property and supplier data, and could disrupt business operations which could harm the Company’s reputation and financial results, as well as potential increased regulatory oversight, litigation, fines, and other remedial action. The costs incurred to investigate and remediate a physical or cybersecurity attack could be significant. A significant physical or cybersecurity attack on the Company’s critical infrastructure could have an adverse impact on the operations, reputation and financial condition of TXNM, PNM, and TNMP.
There are inherent risks in the ownership and operation of nuclear facilities.
Following the transfer of the PVNGS Unit 1 Leased Interest to SRP in January 2023 and the expiration of the leased interest in Unit 2 in January 2024, PNM currently has a 7.3% undivided interest in PVNGS. PVNGS represented 6.7% of PNM’s total generating capacity as of December 31, 2024. PVNGS is subject to environmental, health, and financial risks including but not limited to the ability to obtain adequate supplies of nuclear fuel and water, the ability to dispose of spent nuclear fuel, decommissioning of the plant (see above), securing the facilities against possible terrorist attacks, and unscheduled outages due to equipment failures.
The NRC has broad authority under federal law to impose licensing and safety-related requirements for the operation of nuclear generation facilities. Events at nuclear facilities of other operators or which impact the industry generally may lead the NRC to impose additional requirements and regulations on all nuclear generation facilities, including PVNGS. A major incident at a nuclear facility anywhere in the world could cause the NRC to limit or prohibit the operation or licensing of any domestic nuclear unit and to promulgate new regulations that could require significant capital expenditures and/or increase operating costs.
In the event of noncompliance with its requirements, the NRC has the authority to impose a progressively increasing inspection regime that could ultimately result in the shutdown of a unit, civil penalties, or both, depending upon the NRC’s assessment of the severity of the situation, until compliance is achieved. Increased costs resulting from penalties, a heightened level of scrutiny, and/or implementation of plans to achieve compliance with NRC requirements could adversely affect the financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows of TXNM and PNM. Although PNM has no reason to anticipate a serious nuclear incident at PVNGS, if an incident did occur, it could materially and adversely affect PNM’s results of operations and financial condition.
PNM has external insurance coverage to minimize its financial exposure to some risks. However, it is possible that liabilities associated with nuclear operations could exceed the amount of insurance coverage. See Note 16.
Peak demand for power could exceed forecasted supply capacity, resulting in increased costs for purchasing capacity in the market or building additional generation facilities and/or energy storage facilities.
PNM is obligated to supply power to retail customers. As PNM continues to complete the significant transition in generation resources necessary to achieve 100% carbon emission-free generation by 2040, there are certain potential deliverability and cost risks associated with this transition. These risks are in three main areas, including 1) risk of completion of replacement resources prior to planned generation unit retirements, 2) increasing levels of renewable generation presenting risks of uncertainty and variability that will be further compounded as neighboring systems transition towards increasing levels of renewable resources, and 3) risks for mitigating possible resource volatility through a shrinking energy market.
At peak times, power demand could exceed PNM’s forecasted available generation capacity, particularly if PNM’s power plants are not performing as anticipated and additional resources are not approved, or are not available, as PNM transitions its system to carbon emission-free generation and energy storage. Availability of this technology may create additional strain on the system by adding these additional resources without adequate storage. Additionally, further advances in the technology of renewable resources may need to occur in order to ensure that these resources meet carbon emission-free standards. Competitive market forces or adverse regulatory actions may require PNM to purchase capacity and energy from the market or build additional resources to meet customers’ energy needs in an expedited manner. If that occurs, PNM may see opposition to recovery of these additional costs and could experience a lag between when costs are incurred and when regulators permit recovery in customers’ rates. These situations could have negative impacts on results of operations and cash flows.
Difficulties in obtaining permits and rights-of-way could negatively impact PNM’s results of operations.
PNM’s ability to execute planned operational activities and projects may be inhibited by difficulties in obtaining permits and rights-of-way and other delays. Many of PNM’s transmission and distribution lines cross federal, state, and tribal lands. The Company can experience significant delays in obtaining approvals for new infrastructure, as well as renewals of existing rights-of-way and access for critical maintenance, including vegetation management on these lands. The environmental regulations governing siting and permitting on federal, state, and tribal lands are complex, involve multiple agencies, and include a public process. Any of these risk factors could result in higher costs, delays, or the inability to complete planned projects.
General Economic and Weather Risks
Changes in interest rates could adversely affect our business.
Interest rates have increased and may continue to increase in the future. As a result, interest rates on future credit facilities and debt offerings could be higher than current levels, causing our financing costs to increase accordingly. In addition, because we use both fixed and variable rate debt, we are exposed to market risk due to the floating interest rates on our variable rate borrowings. Our results of operations, cash flows and financial position could be affected adversely by significant fluctuations in interest rates from current levels.
Supply chain issues, high inflation, actions by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary concerns and other market conditions, geopolitical activity and the resulting impact on business and economic conditions could negatively affect the Company’s business, results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, and the trading value of TXNM’s common stock and the Company’s debt securities.
Continued supply chain issues were initially experienced during high inflation, actions by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary concerns or other market conditions, geopolitical activity and the resulting impact on the economy and financial markets could adversely affect the Company’s business, results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, and access to the capital markets. There is no assurance that the continued effects of these market conditions will not adversely impact our business, results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, ability to access the capital markets, and the trading value of the Company’s common stock and debt securities. These effects could adversely impact the Company by:
•reducing usage and/or demand for electricity by our customers in New Mexico and Texas;
•causing delays and disruptions in the availability of and timely delivery of materials and components used in our operations;
•causing delays and disruptions in the supply chain resulting in disruptions in the commercial operation dates of certain projects;
•causing a deterioration in the credit quality of our counterparties, including power purchase agreement providers, contractors or retail customers, that could result in credit losses;
•causing impairments of goodwill or long-lived assets and adversely impacting the Company’s ability to develop, construct and operate facilities;
•impacting the Company’s ability to meet the requirements of the covenants in our existing credit facilities, including covenants regarding debt to capitalization;
•causing a deterioration in our financial metrics or the business environment that impacts our credit ratings;
•decreasing the value of our investment securities held in trusts for pension and other postretirement benefits, and for nuclear decommissioning, SJGS decommissioning, and coal mine reclamation, which could lead to increased funding requirements;
•impacting our liquidity position and cost of and ability to access funds from financial institutions and capital markets; and
•causing other unpredictable events.
General economic conditions of the nation and/or specific areas can affect the Company’s customers and suppliers. Economic recession or downturn may result in decreased consumption by customers and increased bad debt expense, and could also negatively impact suppliers, all of which could negatively affect the Company.
Economic activity in the service territories of TXNM subsidiaries is a key factor in their performance. Decreased economic activity can lead to declines in energy consumption, which could adversely affect future revenues, earnings, and growth. Higher unemployment rates, both in the Company’s service territories and nationwide, could result in commercial customers ceasing operations and lower levels of income for residential customers. These customers might then be unable to pay their bills on time, which could increase bad debt expense and negatively impact results of operations and cash flows. Economic conditions also impact the supply and/or cost of commodities and materials needed to construct or acquire utility assets or make necessary repairs.
The operating results of TXNM and its operating subsidiaries are seasonal and are affected by weather conditions.
Electric generation, transmission, and distribution are generally seasonal businesses that vary with the demand for power. With power consumption typically peaking during the hot summer months, revenues traditionally peak during that period. As a result, quarterly operating results of TXNM and its operating subsidiaries vary throughout the year. In addition, TXNM and its operating subsidiaries have historically had lower revenues resulting in lower earnings when weather conditions are milder. Unusually mild weather in the future could reduce the revenues, net earnings, and cash flows of the Company.
Drought conditions in New Mexico, especially in the “four corners” region, where Four Corners is located, may affect the water supply for PNM’s generating plants. If inadequate precipitation occurs in the watershed that supplies that region, PNM may have to decrease generation at these plants. This would require PNM to purchase power to serve customers and/or reduce the ability to sell excess power on the wholesale market and reduce revenues. Drought conditions or actions taken by the court system, regulators, or legislators could limit PNM’s supply of water, which would adversely impact PNM’s business.
TNMP’s service areas are exposed to extreme weather, including high winds, drought, flooding, ice storms, and periodic hurricanes. Extreme weather conditions, particularly high winds and severe thunderstorms, also occur periodically in PNM’s service areas. These severe weather events can physically damage facilities owned by TNMP and PNM. Any such occurrence both disrupts the ability to deliver energy and increases costs. Extreme weather can also reduce customers’ usage and demand for energy or could result in the Company incurring obligations to third parties related to such events. These factors could negatively impact results of operations and cash flows.
The impact of wildfires could negatively affect PNM’s and TNMP’s results of operations.
PNM and TNMP have large networks of electric transmission and distribution facilities. Weather conditions including severe drought, high winds, and the natural vegetation in the U.S. Southwest region and certain parts of Texas, could contribute to wildfires in or near PNM’s and TNMP’s service territories. The risk of wildfires could result in higher maintenance costs, increased insurance premiums, and the inability to maintain adequate insurance coverage. PNM and TNMP take proactive steps to mitigate wildfire risk. However, wildfire risk is always present and PNM and TNMP could be held liable for damages incurred as a result of wildfires caused, or allegedly caused, by their transmission and distribution systems. In addition, wildfires could cause damage to PNM’s and TNMP’s assets that could result in loss of service to customers or make it difficult to supply power in sufficient quantities to meet customer needs. Wildfire avoidance measures, such as intentional power interruptions, also may lead to customer claims for lost service, business interruption, and other injuries.
Failure to adequately address the risk of wildfires could also result in civil liability arising out of government enforcement actions or private claims. These actions could also result in reputational harm, which may cause stock price decreases, increased insurance premiums or the inability to maintain adequate insurance coverage, or cause certain investors and financial institutions not to purchase the Company’s debt securities or otherwise provide the Company with capital or credit on favorable terms, which may cause the cost of capital to increase. In addition, TXNM and its operating subsidiaries may underestimate the costs of litigation due to the uncertainty inherent in these matters. These events could have negative impacts on the Company’s financial position, results of operations, and cash flows.
Financial Risks
TXNM has counterparty credit risk in connection with financial support that was provided to facilitate the coal supply arrangement for SJGS. Adverse developments from these factors could have a negative impact on the business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows of PNM and TXNM.
TXNM has an arrangement with a bank under which the bank has issued $30.3 million of letters of credit in favor of sureties in order for the sureties to post reclamation bonds that are required under the miner’s operating permit. The Company’s financial position, results of operations, and cash flows could be negatively impacted if the current mine operator were to default on its obligations to reclaim the San Juan mine and TXNM is required to perform under the letter of credit support agreement.
TXNM and its subsidiaries’ substantial indebtedness could adversely affect its financial condition.
TXNM and its subsidiaries currently have a significant amount of indebtedness, including the Convertible Notes. This significant amount of indebtedness could limit TXNM’s ability to obtain additional financing for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, debt service requirements, stock repurchases or other purposes. It may also increase TXNM’s vulnerability to adverse economic, market and industry conditions, limit its flexibility in planning for, or reacting to, changes in its business operations or to its industry overall, and place TXNM at a disadvantage in relation to its competitors that have lower debt levels. Any or all of the above events and/or factors could have an adverse effect on TXNM’s results of operations and financial condition.
Servicing TXNM and its subsidiaries’ debt requires a significant amount of cash, and it may not have sufficient cash flow from its business to pay its substantial debt.
TXNM and its subsidiaries’ ability to make scheduled payments of the principal of, to pay interest on or to refinance, its indebtedness, including the Convertible Notes, depends on its future performance, which is subject to economic, financial, competitive and other factors beyond its control. TXNM’s business may not continue to generate cash flow from operations in the future sufficient to service its debt and make necessary capital expenditures. If TXNM is unable to generate such cash flow, TXNM may be required to adopt one or more alternatives, such as selling assets, restructuring debt or obtaining additional equity capital on terms that may be onerous or highly dilutive. TXNM’s ability to refinance its indebtedness will depend on the capital markets and its financial condition at such time. TXNM may not be able to engage in any of these activities or engage in these activities on desirable terms, which could result in a default on its debt obligations.
Despite TXNM’s current consolidated debt levels, TXNM and its subsidiaries may still incur substantially more debt or take other actions which would intensify the risks discussed above.
Despite TXNM’s current consolidated debt levels, TXNM and its subsidiaries may be able to incur substantial additional debt in the future, subject to the restrictions contained in its debt instruments, some of which may be senior indebtedness or secured debt. TXNM is not restricted under the terms of the Convertible Notes Indenture from incurring additional debt, securing existing or future debt, recapitalizing its debt or taking a number of other actions. TXNM’s Credit Agreement restricts its ability to incur additional indebtedness, including secured indebtedness, but if the TXNM Credit Agreement matures or is repaid, TXNM may not be subject to such restrictions under the terms of any subsequent indebtedness.
The conditional conversion feature of the Convertible Notes, if triggered, may adversely affect TXNM’s financial condition and operating results.
In the event the conditional conversion feature of the Convertible Notes is triggered, holders of Convertible Notes will be entitled to convert the Convertible Notes at any time during specified periods at their option. If one or more holders elect to convert their Convertible Notes, to the extent TXNM is required to pay cash to settle a portion of its conversion obligation, it could adversely affect TXNM’s liquidity. In addition, even if holders do not elect to convert their Convertible Notes, to the extent TXNM is required to pay cash to settle a portion of its conversion obligations, TXNM would be required under applicable accounting rules to reclassify all or a portion of the outstanding principal of the Convertible Notes as a current rather than long-term liability, which would result in a material reduction of its net working capital.
The accounting method for the Convertible Notes could have a material effect on TXNM’s reported financial results.
In August 2020, the Financial Accounting Standards Board issued Accounting Standards Update No. 2020-06, Debt—Debt with Conversion and Other Options (Subtopic 470-20) and Derivatives and Hedging—Contracts in Entity’s Own Equity (Subtopic 815-40): Accounting for Convertible Instruments and Contracts in an Entity’s Own Equity (“ASU 2020-06”), which amends the accounting standards for convertible debt instruments that may be settled entirely or partially in cash upon conversion. ASU 2020-06 eliminates requirements to separately account for liability and equity components of such convertible debt instruments and eliminates the ability to use the treasury stock method for calculating diluted earnings per share for
convertible instruments whose principal amount may be settled using shares. Instead, ASU 2020-06 requires (i) the entire amount of the security to be presented as a liability on the balance sheet and (ii) application of the “if-converted” method for calculating diluted earnings per share. Under the “if-converted” method, diluted earnings per share will generally be calculated assuming that all the Convertible Notes were converted solely into shares of common stock at the beginning of the reporting period, unless the result would be anti-dilutive, which could adversely affect TXNM’s diluted earnings per share. However, if the principal amount of the convertible debt security, such as the Convertible Notes, being converted is required to be paid in cash and only the excess is permitted to be settled in shares, the if-converted method will produce a similar result as the “treasury stock” method prior to the adoption of ASU 2020-06 for such convertible debt security.
ASU 2020-06 became effective for TXNM as of the start of fiscal year end 2022 and as such TXNM did not bifurcate the liability and equity components of the Convertible Notes on its balance sheet and TXNM used the if-converted method of calculating diluted earnings per share. To the extent TXNM is required to pay cash to settle the principal amount of the Convertible Notes upon conversion, with only the excess permitted to be settled in shares of TXNM’s common stock, the application of the if-converted method will produce a similar result as the treasury stock method prior to the adoption of ASU 2020-06. The effect of the treasury stock method is that the shares issuable upon conversion of such Convertible Notes are not included in the calculation of diluted earnings per share except to the extent that the conversion value of such Convertible Notes exceeds their principal amount. The requirement that the principal amount of the Convertible Notes upon conversion must be paid in cash could adversely affect TXNM’s liquidity.
TXNM cannot be sure whether other changes may be made to the current accounting standards related to the Convertible Notes, or otherwise, that could have a material effect on its reported financial results.
The fundamental change repurchase features of the Convertible Notes and the TNMP first mortgage bonds may delay or prevent an otherwise beneficial attempt to acquire TXNM.
Certain provisions in the indenture governing the Convertible Notes and the TNMP first mortgage bonds may make it more difficult or expensive for a third party to acquire TXNM. For example, the Convertible Notes Indenture requires TXNM, subject to certain exceptions, to repurchase the Convertible Notes for cash upon the occurrence of a fundamental change (as defined in the Convertible Notes Indenture) and, in certain circumstances, to increase the conversion rate for a holder that converts its Convertible Notes in connection with a make-whole fundamental change (as defined in the Convertible Notes Indenture). In addition, the supplemental indentures governing certain of the TNMP first mortgage bonds include a provision whereby a change in control in TNMP or TXNM would obligate TNMP to offer to prepay all of such bonds. A takeover of TXNM may trigger the requirement that TXNM repurchase TNMP first mortgage bonds or the Convertible Notes and/or increase the conversion rate on the Convertible Notes, which could make it more costly for a potential acquirer to engage in such takeover. Such additional costs may have the effect of delaying or preventing a takeover of TXNM that would otherwise be beneficial to investors.
TXNM may be unable to meet its ongoing and future financial obligations and to pay dividends on its common stock if its subsidiaries are unable to pay dividends or distributions to TXNM.
TXNM is a holding company and has no operations of its own. TXNM’s ability to meet its financial obligations and to pay dividends on its common stock primarily depends on the net earnings and cash flows of PNM and TNMP and their capacity to pay upstream dividends or distributions. Prior to providing funds to TXNM, PNM and TNMP have financial and regulatory obligations that must be satisfied, including among others, debt service and, in the case of PNM, preferred stock dividends.
The NMPRC has placed certain restrictions on the ability of PNM to pay dividends to TXNM, including that PNM cannot pay dividends that cause its debt rating to fall below investment grade. The NMPRC has also restricted PNM from paying dividends in any year, as determined on a rolling four-quarter basis, in excess of net earnings without prior NMPRC approval. PNM is permitted to pay dividends to TXNM from prior equity contributions made by TXNM. Additionally, TXNM’s financing agreements generally include a covenant to maintain a debt-to-capitalization ratio that does not exceed 70%, and PNM and TNMP’s financing arrangements generally include a covenant to maintain debt-to-capitalization ratios that do not exceed 65%. PNM also has various financial covenants that limit the transfer of assets, through dividends or other means and the Federal Power Act imposes certain restrictions on dividends paid by public utilities, including that dividends cannot be paid from paid-in capital.
Further, the ability of TXNM to declare dividends depends upon the extent to which cash flows will support dividends, the Company’s financial circumstances and performance, economic conditions in the U.S. and in the Company’s service areas, future growth plans and the related capital requirements, and other business considerations. Declaration of dividends may also be affected by decisions of the NMPRC, FERC, and PUCT in various regulatory cases currently pending or that may be docketed in the future, including the outcome of appeals of those decisions, conditions imposed by the NMPRC, PUCT, or Federal Power Act, and the effect of federal regulatory decisions and legislative acts.
Disruption in the credit and capital markets may impact the Company’s strategy and ability to raise capital.
TXNM and its subsidiaries rely on access to both short-term and longer-term capital markets as sources of liquidity for any capital requirements not satisfied by cash flow from operations. In general, the Company relies on its short-term credit facilities as the initial source to finance construction expenditures. This results in increased borrowings under the facilities over time. The Company is currently projecting total construction expenditures for the years 2025-2029 to be $7.8 billion. If TXNM or its operating subsidiaries are not able to access capital at competitive rates, or at all, TXNM’s ability to finance capital requirements and implement its strategy will be limited. Disruptions in the credit markets, which could negatively impact the Company’s access to capital, could be caused by an economic recession, declines in the health of the banking sector generally or the failure of specific banks who are parties to the Company’s credit facilities, deterioration in the overall health of the utility industry, the bankruptcy of an unrelated energy company, war, terrorist attacks, cybersecurity attacks, or threatened attacks.
If the Company’s cash flow and credit and capital resources are insufficient to fund capital expenditure plans, the Company may be forced to delay important capital investments, sell assets, seek additional equity or debt capital, or restructure debt. In addition, insufficient cash flows and capital resources may result in reductions of credit ratings. This could negatively impact the Company’s ability to incur additional indebtedness on acceptable terms and would result in an increase in the interest rates applicable under the Company’s credit facilities. The Company’s cash flow and capital resources may be insufficient to pay interest and principal on debt in the future. If that should occur, the Company’s capital raising or debt restructuring measures may be unsuccessful or inadequate to meet scheduled debt service obligations. This could cause the Company to default on its obligations and further impair liquidity.
Reduction in credit ratings or changing rating agency requirements could materially and adversely affect the Company’s growth, strategy, business, financial position, results of operations, and liquidity.
TXNM, PNM, and TNMP cannot be sure that any of their current credit ratings will remain in effect for any given period of time or that a rating will not be put under review for a downgrade, lowered, or withdrawn entirely by a rating agency. As discussed in MD&A - Liquidity and Capital Resources, all of TXNM, PNM, and TNMP’s senior debt ratings are investment grade. Downgrades or changing requirements could result in increased borrowing costs due to higher interest rates on current borrowings or future financings, a smaller potential pool of investors, and decreased funding sources. Such conditions also could require the provision of additional support in the form of letters of credit and cash or other collateral to various counterparties.
Declines in values of marketable securities held in trust funds for pension and other postretirement benefits, in the NDT and coal mine reclamation trusts, and in the SJGS decommissioning trust could result in sustained increases in costs and funding requirements for those obligations, which may affect operational results.
The PNM and TNMP Pension Plans have targeted asset allocations of 50% and 70% liability matching fixed and 50% and 30% return generating income, which includes alternative income. The Company uses a strategy, known as Liability Driven Investing, which seeks to select investments that match the liabilities of the pension plans. The OPEB plans generally use the same pension fixed income and equity investment managers and utilize the same overall investment strategy as the pension plans, except there is no allocation to alternative investments and the OPEB plans have a target asset allocation of 30% equities and 70% fixed income.
In 2024, the Corporate Investment Committee approved a revised target for the NDT investment portfolio of 30% fixed income, 45% equity securities, and 25% alternative investments. The Company is in process of implementing the revised strategy. The current asset allocation exposes the NDT investment portfolio to market and macroeconomic factors. Declines in market values could result in increased funding of the trusts, the recognition of losses as impairments for the NDT and coal mine reclamation trusts, SJGS decommissioning trust, and additional expense for the benefit plans. In addition, a change in GAAP required that all changes in the fair value of equity securities recorded on the Company’s balance sheet be reflected in earnings, which results in increased volatility in earnings.
Impairments of goodwill and long-lived assets of TXNM, PNM, and TNMP could adversely affect the Company’s business, financial position, liquidity, and results of operations.
The Company annually evaluates recorded goodwill for impairment. See Note 1 and the Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates section of MD&A. Long-lived assets are also assessed whenever indicators of impairment exist. Factors that affect the long-term value of these assets, including treatment by regulators in ratemaking proceedings, as well as other economic and market conditions, could result in impairments. Significant impairments could adversely affect the Company’s business, financial position, liquidity, and results of operations.
The impacts and implementation of U.S. tax reform legislation may negatively impact TXNM’s, PNM’s, and TNMP’s businesses, financial position, results of operations, and cash flows.
Changes in tax laws may negatively impact TXNM’s, PNM’s, and TNMP’s businesses, financial position, results of operations, and cash flows. The Company possesses tax credits and other carryforwards, the value of which could be diminished by new laws or the Company’s ability to timely utilize them. Increases in tax rates may not be immediately recoverable through PNM’s and TNMP’s regulated rates, reducing earnings. Tax laws and regulations may also negatively impact the relative value of some resource investments over others, making those investments less competitive.
Governance Risks
Provisions of TXNM’s organizational documents, as well as several other statutory and regulatory factors, will limit another party’s ability to acquire TXNM and could deprive TXNM’s shareholders of the opportunity to receive a takeover premium for shares of TXNM’s common stock.
TXNM’s restated articles of incorporation and by-laws include a number of provisions that may have the effect of discouraging persons from acquiring large blocks of TXNM’s common stock or delaying or preventing a change in control of TXNM. The material provisions that may have such an effect include:
•Authorization for the Board to issue TXNM’s preferred stock in series and to fix rights and preferences of the series (including, among other things, voting rights and preferences with respect to dividends and other matters)
•Advance notice procedures with respect to any proposal other than those adopted or recommended by the Board
•Provisions specifying that only a majority of the Board, the chairman of the Board, the chief executive officer, or holders of at least one-tenth of all of TXNM’s shares entitled to vote may call a special meeting of shareholders
Under the New Mexico Public Utility Act, NMPRC approval is required for certain transactions that may result in TXNM’s change in control or exercise of control, including ownership of 10% or more of TXNM’s voting stock. PUCT approval is required for changes to the ownership of TNMP or its parent and certain other transactions relating to TNMP. Certain acquisitions of TXNM’s outstanding voting securities also require FERC approval.
